What Happened to Evan Carter, Playoff Phenom?

There’s a question burning in the minds of Texas Rangers fans, now three years removed from celebrating the franchise’s first World Series title. Most fans don’t want to voice the question out of respect for the player and his massive contributions to that long awaited, epic victory. But nostalgia has a way of distracting us from reality. And fans facing reality are wondering, will Evan Carter ever approach his 2023 production?

Place yourself in Evan Carter’s shoes throughout the Rangers World Series run. You’re 21 years old, living in the moment, running on adrenaline, adapting to the big league lifestyle, to big league pitching, playoff pressure, instant success, all at the same time. You’re not thinking about the crazy high bar you’re setting for the rest of your career. The idea of becoming a sub-par player is completely alien to you.

Today, Carter is a sub par player. In a largely healthy 2026 season spanning 115 games, he’s slashing .197/.298/.323 with a .621 OPS. He ranks last in all four metrics among Rangers that have played at least 75 games.

Still, Carter can’t walk up to the plate without injecting memories of 2023 into the veins of Rangers fans far and wide. Which means he’s regularly being compared to the player he was in 2023.

Is that comparison fair to him? No. But that’s how sports go. Players are compared to their best seasons. And it’s not like Carter worked his way up to his best season. He burst on to the game’s biggest stage as a top prospect, producing over and over in the clutch and garnering as many headlines as any player involved in the postseason. He instantly became a face of the franchise.

With Evan Carter, the Rangers won the World Series. With Evan Carter, the Rangers would have success for years to come. At least, so we thought.

24 years old, Carter has plenty of time left to tap into his 2023 version. But again, we ask, is that a realistic expectation?

Carter posted a number of statistical anomalies in his 2023 sample. His BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) was an absurd .412 and he slugged an even more absurd .645. He also had a hard hit percentage of nearly 50%. He was on an absolute heater where just about every ball he connected with found a gap or stadium seat beyond the outfield wall.

Unless you had visions of Carter becoming the next Barry Bonds, expecting him to maintain his 2023 pace was, indeed, unrealistic.

Though, there are metrics from his heroic end-of-season run that could better project his future, or at least guide him towards that level of production.

Carter posted a line drive percentage of 20.5% and fly ball percentage of 36% in 2023. His best two seasons aligned with his highest line drive percentages (20.5% in ’23 and 19.7% in ’25) and lowest fly ball percentages (35.9% in ’23 and 40.8% in ’25).

The numbers also prove that Carter is not a power hitter. He’s slugged below .400 each the past three seasons. When he slugged .645 in 2023, his xSLG (expected slug) was .395. Fly balls won’t get Carter very far (no pun intended), especially at Globe Life Field.

Additionally, he had a chase rate of only 9% in 2023. His chase rate has more than doubled in every season since.

Remember “Full-Count Carter”? The earned moniker that rolled off the tongue of every announcer, reporter, and Rangers fan all throughout the 2023 postseason. We don’t hear the famed nickname as often these days.

The Rangers need that version of Evan Carter. They need him to place pressure on opposing pitchers like he did in 2023, forcing them to stay in the zone and make their best pitch when behind in the count. They need him to put the ball in play, on a line or even on the ground so he can use his speed.

He is talented, bringing value to center field and on the bases. But talented, ball hawking outfielders are not hard to come by at the big league level. If he wants to stay with the Rangers and in the majors, he’ll need to find his offensive form. Which means a critical offseason looms.

We’ll delegate the offseason workout plan to Carter and the Rangers coaching staff, as they know best. Hopefully, come 2027, he’ll be more of a nuisance at the plate, drawing walks, putting the ball in play, and racking up hits – against righties AND lefties. If he can up his OBP then he can be more of a nuisance on the base paths as well.

Let’s keep 2023 Evan Carter in check. The Rangers don’t need him to be superman. They do, however, need him to be better than he’s been in 2026 – quite a bit better.